Many, many years ago a friend of mine gave me the basis for a soccer prediction model. The paper was called “One Match to Go” and was published in December 2009. The paper focused on trying to predict the score and results for the end of season in the Premiership using expected goals and poisson distributions. I had been sitting on this paper for years, I had flitted with the idea of applying the model but in the last few weeks I finally applied it. Read More
For the 2016-17 I made a concerted effort to track my fantasy football team applying the optimisation techniques that I had discussed in an earlier post. Around February or March I waned but at that time I had resigned myself to mid-table (at best) obscurity and in my own league with a few friends I came bottom, not a ringing endorsement.
Regardless I have looked at the optimal team for the start of this season and it is set out below. Read More